On Thursday the Davos World Energy Outlook Panel took place. It's well worth a look, you can find the video or podcast here.
The participants were:
Chair: Daniel Yergin - Cambridge Energy Research
AssociatesPanelists:Thierry Desmarest - Chairman Total
Khalid Al-Falih - CEO Saudi Aramco
Tony Hayward - CEO BP Group
Peter Voser - CEO Royal Dutch Shell
Andrew Liveris - CEO Dow Chemical
Ilham Aliyev - President Azerbaijan
I'll summarise the key points.Energy demand still up 40% by 2030, 100% by 2050. Investment has continued as if recession did not happen. Renewables not going to be significant contribution to energy mix. Unconventional natural gas will be huge.
Thierry Desmarest: Peak oil has not gone away, pushed back a bit. Not for lack of reserves, but difficult to access, and we are seeing postponements in e.g. Athabasca oil sands. Getting above 95mb/d will be very hard and he forsees difficulties in the coming years. IOCs not getting a look in by the NOCs. Total is going to focus on the very challenging projects which it specialises in.
“The problem of peak oil remains. In our opinion, it will be very difficult to raise oil production worldwide above 95 million barrels a day, which is 10 percent more than today.” The problem is not one of insufficient reserves, but that “a lot of it is difficult to be produced.” World oil production could peak in “about 10 years. We are not there yet today.”
Khalid Al-Falih: The nonsense of peak oil is now hopefully behind us. Sees no difficulty in getting above 100mb/d. Saudi Arabia has 1/3 of its capacity (4mb/d) idled at the moment. Will attempt to continue its role as price stabiliser (although idling capacity is v. expensive). Brought 2mb/d capacity onstream last year.Incremental barrels of onshore Saudi oil capacity now cost 6-7 times what they used to in 2000. Projects take 7-10 years to come on stream. Will make investment to maintain capacity, scoffs at IEA former predictions of 25mb/d Saudi oil, but will stay at about its current level. Has long list of projects to offset its decline in current fields.Very confident that technological improvements will facilitate increased production.Very pissed off at rhetoric about 'moving away from oil' or misleading notions of 'energy independence'. Energy security should be addressed through the framework of energy interdependence. Fossil fuels predominant for decades to come. Focus on efficiency, renewable deployment will be very slow.
Tony Hayward: Cautiously optimistic that Iraq oil production will increase to 10mb/d by 2020 (though not sooner because of execution challenges). Easy oil resource is there if political climate cooperates. If you assume world requires 100mb/d in 2030, then with 4-5% decline rate in existing fields, we need to find 50mb/d (4 Saudi Arabias). Resources there but need investment.Shale gas is a 'complete game changer', dramatically altering the US energy outlook for perhaps 100 years.
Peter Voser: Highest investment ever in 2009 by Shell of $32bn, same for 2010. If investment does not keep up, supply demand imbalance will occur. $27trn investment needed in oil by 2030, orders of magnitude above current level.Incremental supply of 1% extra world energy takes 25-30 years to fully develop.Loads of clean natural gas, near term solution for next 10-20 years.
Andrew Liveris: Energy independence is a myth. Dow energy budget from 2002-2008 quadrupled from $8bn to $32bn. 2009 an aberration, energy demand will increase as before. Very difficult to plan long term with the volatility in energy prices, because investment horizons and paybacks are 20-30 years.Sees innovation in wind and solar as contributing to the energy mix and as physical hedges against oil and gas.Average US home has 2.5 miles of cracks in it which is a national tragedy. Focus on efficiency.Wants to see cap and trade to incentivise efficiency.
Welcome
Andrew is the Director of acclaimed peak oil film, Petroapocalypse Now? He is passionate about climate change and the energy industry having studied MBiochem at Keble College, Oxford. Since then he has worked for twelve years as a Director and offline/online Editor for BBC, ITN Factual, Granada, Shine, Endemol and Prospect Pictures amongst others. He is a BECTU member and his additional skills include shooting on Z1 and editing on Avid Media Composer, Adrenaline, Symphony, Express and FCP.
Petroapocalypse Now Main Site
SCHOOL LIBRARY JOURNAL
PetroApocalypse Now? DVD. 48 min.
As we have witnessed frequently since the energy crisis of the late 1970s, the world's economy-and consequentially, our standard of living-often rests on the availability of energy, typically based on fossil fuels. This thought-provoking documentary examines the amount of oil we need now and will need in the future to satisfy our increasing demand for products based on this increasingly elusive commodity. Three key points are raised: the planet's escalating population (especially in Third World developing countries) requires more energy, even if individual demand remains constant; the rate of oil extraction continues to decline as current exploration focuses on increasingly difficult-to-tap locations; and, while research into alternative technology-based resources such as solar and wind power and gas continues to advance, the widespread application of those sources is still far into the future. The producers of this nicely-paced program have done extensive research. There are interviews with a wide range of experts in energy production and utilization, both from the business and academic sectors. Crisp, clear graphics and an assortment of vintage film and still imagery illustrate the message that, despite assurances from oil-producing countries that supplies are adequate, too much is at stake not to give priority to addressing this critical issue. This film will be a valuable addition to media collections and will be welcomed in a variety of classroom settings.-Dwain Thomas, formerly of Lake Park High School, Roselle, IL
My latest editing work "Obama and Me" was on on Tuesday 19th on BBC2. Have a look here:
This World: Obama and Me
BBC Two
Back to those emergency parachutes: This World: Obama and Me powerfully demonstrated how impossible it is to be the person tasked with those big decisions, with being the “saviour”.
Here was another excellent structure: part timeline of the president’s first year, courtesy of newsreel footage, and part personal insight into how those 12 months affected the opinions of six Obama voters in their daily lives. Flitting from big picture to very specific stories, this was a strong set of flashcards to guide your own assessment of his progress, showing both those still in thrall of this new American Dream, and those absolutely not. “For the first time in my life, government works,” said Charles, an often-tearful charity worker whose organisation had received extra funds under Obama’s recovery package — and who considered Independence Day 2009 the country’s first, as black people such as himself were now free too. Karen, however, became the only black face at a protest against Obama’s proposed healthcare reforms. “Can we bankrupt America? Yes We Can”.
Well, it wasn’t quite a balanced account. Many of the anti-Obama voices were made to look ridiculous — Karen’s criticism was couched in footage of her daughter saying she was always ranting about something; other protesters were shown giving laughable soundbites such as: “I’ve met several people from Russia here today and they’re frightened.”
But whatever your political perspective, you’d have to be pretty hard-hearted to watch this and not feel some sympathy for Obama, as unrealistic expectations heaped up around him on issues from troop withdrawal to the colour of his wife’s handbag. He might well give up his own rescue parachute for just one day with that Minoan wine ...